Who will be Britains no.1 come June 2006 ?

PlatinumTiger · Junior player

Who will be Britains no.1 come June 2006 ?

Sheddie · administrator

Hi Platinumtiger and welcome to this message board and congrats on becoming our 150th member.

I read an article which stated that if Henman continued his current decline and Andy continued his current rise then Andy would overtake Tim at the end of Feb 2006. However, I think that would be extremely unlikely.

I reckon that this will be what happens:

End of Jan: [1] Henman ranked in top 30 - the Aussie Open has never really suited his game or been a happy hunting ground but he has few points to defend to should move up a few places
[2] Rusedski - ranked about 40 [3] Murray - ranked near 50 - the Aussie Open will really suit his game so he has good chances of doing well

End of March: [1] Henman ranked about 25 [2] Rusedski has moved back into the lower 30s [3] Murray is somewhere between 40-50

End of April: [1] Henman slips down to about 30 after losing points from Miami
[2] Rusedski maintains position in lower 30s [3] Murray ranked about 40

End of May: [1] Henman in mid 30s [2] Murray just in the top 40
[3] Rusedski in lower 40s after a dreadful clay-court season or maybe he'll skip it entirely

End of the year: [1] Murray ranked about 20 [2] Henman ranked in the low 20s
[3] Rusedski ranked in the mid 30s

VSandhi20 · Futures qualifying

Website editor: With your views on who number 1 brit, it will be tighter in the world rankings as around 8 places are split between murray and henman, henman and rusedski, so it will ne interesting what the outcome will be come end of 2006.

in my opinion, murray will win more titles than henman and greg, henman will probably reach some consistency by reaching the quarter finals in many events but i doubt it will propel him back in the top 20. as for greg, up and down season and i think it will be a struggle for him to get back in the groove come the late american hardcourt season as he has got massive points to defend.

PlatinumTiger · Junior player

Good morning Guru and thank you for the welcome. Your view is very interesting and very well thought out. I agree with most points but yes he had a bad year but he might not decline further. Time will tell but one thing is for sure time is not on his side

PlatinumTiger · Junior player

I think it will be a bonus if Tim does get back inside the top 20 but it is not impossible by any stretch of the imagination. Top ten would be fantastic. Whatever happens you do not lose your talent overnight .But he needs the old body to hold up at least.Murray yes i can definately see him winning one title at least and maybe making the latters stages of tournaments.2006 will be his big year.Can he reamain consistently good to cut it with the big boys??

Drew · Nov 30, 2005

Website editor wrote:

Hi Platinumtiger and welcome to this message board and congrats on becoming our 150th member. I read an article which stated that if Henman continued his current decline and Andy continued his current rise then Andy would overtake Tim at the end of Feb 2006. However, I think that would be extremely unlikely. I reckon that this will be what happens: End of Jan: [1] Henman ranked in top 30 - the Aussie Open has never really suited his game or been a happy hunting ground but he has few points to defend to should move up a few places [2] Rusedski - ranked about 40 [3] Murray - ranked near 50 - the Aussie Open will really suit his game so he has good chances of doing well End of March: [1] Henman ranked about 25 [2] Rusedski has moved back into the lower 30s [3] Murray is somewhere between 40-50 End of April: [1] Henman slips down to about 30 after losing points from Miami [2] Rusedski maintains position in lower 30s [3] Murray ranked about 40 End of May: [1] Henman in mid 30s [2] Murray just in the top 40 [3] Rusedski in lower 40s after a dreadful clay-court season or maybe he'll skip it entirely End of the year: [1] Murray ranked about 20 [2] Henman ranked in the low 20s [3] Rusedski ranked in the mid 30s

Is this wishfull thinking ?........I do not think so......I actually think Tim will do worse...not that I want that I dont but can see him drifting even lower.......hope I wrong and that you are right about Andy !

Sheddie · administrator

I do hope that Tim makes it back into the top 20 as it should definately be possible if he stays fit since it was only 2004 when he was one of the top 6 players in the world. However, his back is only going to get worse and since Wimbledon his confidence seems to have been so low. I do worry that his game is too lightweight nowadays with the emergence of all these young big hitting baseliners like Berdych and Monfils. Can Henman compete them from the baseline ? He really needs a good start to the year to get his competitive juices flowing again but the Australian Open has not been a happy hunting ground for him as the courts are too slow and high bouncing for his game style even though he has done consistently well in Adelaide over the years. Hopefully the Feburary indoor tournaments will see a return to Henman at his best.

People do worry that Andy Murray will not do so well next year as opponents begin to suss him out more. However, I don't believe this as Murray's game is so different and unique to most of the other top 100 players out there. He doesn't have an obvious weakness from the baseline, there is no particular shot which you can target as an opponent. He seems to be trying to improve his serve and becoming more aggressive from the baseline which will mean he will only continue to improve. Opponents will target his 2nd serve but not many have the explosive returns of Gonzalez, Berdych and Safin and on most surfaces Andy's athleticism will enable him to get himself back in the rally even against those 3 players. I believe he will reach at least the quarters in 2 of the 4 Grand Slams next year - the Aussie and US Opens.

PlatinumTiger · Junior player

Good evening to all,

I am hoping Tim will be back next year .He has admitted recently that it was the fitness and injury problems that held him back all year.Tim has a habit of sometimes saying he is feeling better than he really is which is to be admired i suppose in a way. He does not give much away so it is hard to know what he is really thinking and feeling. He also said reaching the Masters cup last year and playing when he was really tired gave him a really bad start to 2005 which he never really recovered from.If he does stay fit i cannot see any reason why he cannot perform like you said 2004 was a great year for him.The talent is still there.

The other problem is that the young guys have hit form and he is getting older so i doubt we will see hin in the top 5 or 6 again. No matter how good you are age is a factor

Also i cannot see any reason why Andy Murray cannot go from strength .He just needs to work on that consistency a bit more .His talent matches the top players for sure.

VSandhi20 · Futures qualifying

Website editor wrote:

I do hope that Tim makes it back into the top 20 as it should definately be possible if he stays fit since it was only 2004 when he was one of the top 6 players in the world. However, his back is only going to get worse and since Wimbledon his confidence seems to have been so low. I do worry that his game is too lightweight nowadays with the emergence of all these young big hitting baseliners like Berdych and Monfils. Can Henman compete them from the baseline ? He really needs a good start to the year to get his competitive juices flowing again but the Australian Open has not been a happy hunting ground for him as the courts are too slow and high bouncing for his game style even though he has done consistently well in Adelaide over the years. Hopefully the Feburary indoor tournaments will see a return to Henman at his best. People do worry that Andy Murray will not do so well next year as opponents begin to suss him out more. However, I don't believe this as Murray's game is so different and unique to most of the other top 100 players out there. He doesn't have an obvious weakness from the baseline, there is no particular shot which you can target as an opponent. He seems to be trying to improve his serve and becoming more aggressive from the baseline which will mean he will only continue to improve. Opponents will target his 2nd serve but not many have the explosive returns of Gonzalez, Berdych and Safin and on most surfaces Andy's athleticism will enable him to get himself back in the rally even against those 3 players. I believe he will reach at least the quarters in 2 of the 4 Grand Slams next year - the Aussie and US Opens.

WOAH!! Quarters for Andy? I am not so sure. if you want andy to start off at a steady pace then he should aim to get to the 4th round of each grand slam, it shows that players of his calibre are able to maintain a good record when starting before establishing themselves as a top contender for the slams. Now for the Aussie Open which is like 6 weeksaway, i think he got a chance of doing well, but i worry that he won't have enough time to adapt to the courts there, let say a get a reasonable draw but fail to get past the 2nd round, he may lack match practice.. though we don't know what to expect of him, he might reach the quarters in one week and get knocked in the 1st round, but then he will end up saying well im use to courts crack on to the Aussie Open!! Away from Andy..i would like to know the tournaments in Doha and Chennai, are they the same surface as Aussie Open or not?

Alex · Social player

I hope that Henman returns to form and gets back to the top 20. He will be aided by having had 2 months off- last year the Masters Cup really took it out of him. It will really take the pressure off Andy, if there are two Brits with equal chances of doing well at Wimby for the next two years as the hype will be reaching fever pitch as usual. I'd love to see him win a Grand Slam - it would be a fitting end to the finest career British tennis has seen since Fred Perry. However, sadly even if it does all come together for 2 whole weeks, Henman's game is simply not big enough for him to have a Sampras or Ivanesevic style swansong. As you say though Platinumtiger, the talent is still there and he still has the potential to cause damage in Grand Slam draws - he especially has unfinished business at the Aussie Open - Grand Slam semis in all 4 Slams would be some achievement - maybe we could call it the "bridemaid's Grand Slam" - as Henman is referred to often as a perennial bridesmaid.

I doubt that Andy Murray will reach 2 Grand Slam quarters- that's asking a bit too much but at the US or Aussie Opens he could reach 1 maybe. He has the perfect game for the slow hard courts of Melbourne and New York and he loves those type of surfaces. Getting used to the Aussie Open surface won't be a problem - he'll have a whole fortnight of competing on Rebound Ace. At Wimbledon, national fevour could see him into week 2 but I think he needs to improve his serve and baseline play before he goes further than rd4. At Roland Garros I would be pleased with a 4th rd result as Murray's clay court strategy currently leaves much to be desired and he needs to rethink his shot selection totally - at the moment it's just rally from the baseline for 4 shots and then play a drop shot whatever his position on the court.

For VSandhi - Chenniai and Doha are on outdoor hard but not the same type which is used in the Aussie Open - a special type of hard court called Rebound Ace.

Montana Doug · Futures qualifying

I think it will be Henman. If he has a good spell with his health he is still consistant enough to get to 1/4 finals etc. He has little to defend after Indian Wells/Miami, so his ranking could fall drastically after April, May, but then for the rest of the year he has nothing to defend. I think this long break has helped him and if he playes like he played in Indian Wells, Miami this year, then who knows. I don't think 2004 was a flash in the pan and I know he can do better at the US Open and Timbledon.

I hope Greg has a good year again, but can't see him ranked higher than he is now. I think Andy will be in the top 30 by year's end, but I think Tim will be back in the top 20.

So my guess is 1) Tim, 2) Andy, 3) Greg. But if I am well wrong and one of them ends up in the top five or wins a Grand Slam I'd happily take that.

Montana Doug · Futures qualifying

Opps....I messed up. Been busy with work sorry....I clearly was not reading as it says June and I was talking about the end of next year. Still, I think Henman will have a better French, Queens and Wimbledon so it will be him. Although not sure he will be as good at Indian Wells and Miami, but with his back/ribs fine, I hope so.

Still say, Tim, Andy & Greg, although Greg won Newport and will still have all those points.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Does Andy have fans on this messageboard? You seem a very pessimistic bunch.

With Tim I think it is difficult to tell because 2004 suggested he could do very well in Grand Slams beyond Wimbledon then 2005 was so bad that another 6 months of that and he would probably retire.

I fear a combination of the back problem and a loss of confidence make it unlikely that Tim will recover his form. Mentally I suspect he is preparing himself for retirement.

But a good display at the Australian Open could turn it all around for Tim.

Andy should overtake Tim by the time of the Miami Masters event. The gap is currently just under 300 points and Tim is defending 460 up to that point while Andy has practically nothing to defend. Andy also has the advantage of playing more tournaments during the opening couple of months to the season. Tim is likely to play 3 optionals (Doha, Rotterdam, Dubai) to Andy's 5 and even these 3 events tend to have much stronger draws.

Andy to finish the year just inside the top 10 and to reach 1 grand slam semi-final - probably Roland Garros or Wimbledon. Not convinced that hardcourts are really his best surface relative to other players.

After Tim reached the semi-final of Roland Garros I thought he could yet have a few more years of being a contender for titles but since the US Open of that year he hasn't looked bothered. I know the back injury has been causing a lot of trouble but the fight seems to have gone. Some of his performances this year were wretched.

While I would like to see him back in the top 20 it seems really unlikely unless his back problem gets solved during the off-season.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

The trouble is, Kundalini, that years of following Henman has made me, for one, afraid of being anything but pessimistic. Optimism, dashed to the ground so often, wears one down eventually. I would love to be optimistic about Andy.

Oh, go on then, I will. I have had the same back problem as Tim now has for over 20 years; it sometimes improves for a while, then unexpectedly rears its ugly head again. So I will go for Andy as British no1 by June, Tim as no 2 and Greg as no 3.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

I know. I always felt that one year it would happen for Tim. But on those few occasions that he had a chance he couldn't quite do it.

In hindsight Roland Garros 2004 was possibly his best ever chance to win a slam. A set and a break up against Coria with Gaudio awaiting the winner is the sort of opportunity that has to be taken.

Deep down I'm not convinced that Tim really believed he was one of the top players. With Andy I think the situation is different but the breakthrough has to happen within the next 3 or 4 years. After that it gets so difficult - mental barriers emerge, the self-belief fades away. You only had to watch the Agassi matches in the US Open to see what happens to players who don't quite believe they deserve to beat a legend. Take him to 5 sets is ok but to beat him is beyond them.

Watching Andy he looks like a player who could win a grand slam. But I feel he really needs to impose himself in the next couple of years so players fear him. There are so many talented youngers that a pecking order will develop and it may be difficult to overtake. At the moment it is Nadal, Gasquet, Berdych, Monfils.....then the rest (Baghdatis, Andy, Djokovic).